Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#164
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#85
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#292
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 9.8% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 14.6
.500 or above 46.5% 52.6% 24.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 67.5% 49.6%
Conference Champion 8.9% 10.4% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 5.0% 11.4%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
First Round8.3% 9.5% 3.9%
Second Round1.3% 1.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: High Point (Home) - 78.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.40.0 - 1.4
Quad 1b0.2 - 1.20.2 - 2.7
Quad 21.0 - 3.21.2 - 5.9
Quad 34.3 - 5.75.4 - 11.6
Quad 48.6 - 3.414.0 - 15.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2018 255   High Point W 77-72 79%    
  Nov 10, 2018 182   @ Duquesne W 77-76 42%    
  Nov 15, 2018 181   @ Illinois-Chicago W 81-80 42%    
  Nov 17, 2018 49   @ Notre Dame L 70-80 13%    
  Nov 20, 2018 149   Radford L 71-72 57%    
  Nov 24, 2018 106   Saint Joseph's L 77-81 46%    
  Nov 28, 2018 99   @ Marshall L 85-90 25%    
  Dec 01, 2018 129   George Mason L 77-80 51%    
  Dec 05, 2018 102   @ Old Dominion L 69-73 27%    
  Dec 08, 2018 240   @ Hampton W 84-80 55%    
  Dec 22, 2018 2   @ Virginia L 56-75 3%    
  Dec 28, 2018 176   James Madison W 78-77 62%    
  Dec 30, 2018 237   Towson W 77-73 72%    
  Jan 03, 2019 239   @ Delaware W 77-73 54%    
  Jan 05, 2019 280   @ Drexel W 82-76 61%    
  Jan 10, 2019 156   Hofstra L 81-82 58%    
  Jan 12, 2019 70   Northeastern L 73-81 34%    
  Jan 19, 2019 231   Elon W 79-75 72%    
  Jan 24, 2019 197   @ UNC Wilmington W 84-82 47%    
  Jan 26, 2019 112   @ College of Charleston L 71-75 30%    
  Jan 31, 2019 280   Drexel W 82-76 77%    
  Feb 02, 2019 239   Delaware W 77-73 72%    
  Feb 07, 2019 70   @ Northeastern L 73-81 18%    
  Feb 09, 2019 156   @ Hofstra L 81-82 39%    
  Feb 16, 2019 231   @ Elon W 79-75 53%    
  Feb 21, 2019 112   College of Charleston L 71-75 48%    
  Feb 23, 2019 197   UNC Wilmington W 84-82 65%    
  Feb 28, 2019 237   @ Towson W 77-73 54%    
  Mar 02, 2019 176   @ James Madison W 78-77 43%    
Projected Record 14.0 - 15.0 9.6 - 8.4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.2 8.9 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 3.8 4.5 3.0 1.2 0.1 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.0 4.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.7 4.1 1.0 0.1 13.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 5.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.8 1.4 0.2 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 3.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.3 6.2 8.8 9.8 11.3 11.8 11.2 9.5 7.7 5.7 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 93.5% 1.8    1.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 67.7% 2.7    1.8 0.8 0.1
14-4 40.6% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.7% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 5.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 84.8% 57.4% 27.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.3%
17-1 0.4% 59.7% 45.3% 14.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 26.3%
16-2 1.9% 46.3% 34.9% 11.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 17.5%
15-3 4.0% 33.8% 31.3% 2.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.7%
14-4 5.7% 22.3% 22.0% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 0.4%
13-5 7.7% 15.0% 14.8% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 6.6 0.3%
12-6 9.5% 12.7% 12.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 8.3 0.2%
11-7 11.2% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 10.2
10-8 11.8% 5.2% 5.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 11.2
9-9 11.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10.9
8-10 9.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 8.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.7
6-12 6.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.1
5-13 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.3
4-14 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 8.6% 8.1% 0.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 91.4 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%